After more than two decades of a heavy and complex military presence, the final US personnel officially departed their bases in Iraq on Wednesday. This historic withdrawal marks the definitive close of a chapter that fundamentally reshaped modern American foreign policy, the trajectory of the Middle East, and the lives of millions of Iraqis. The departure, however, does not occur in a geopolitical vacuum; it comes at a time when the wider Middle East is once again gripped by profound turmoil, highlighted by an unfolding war involving Iran that is sending severe ripple effects across the globe.
To understand the magnitude of this withdrawal, one must look back to the spring of 2003, when United States-led forces launched an invasion of Iraq with the primary stated objective of removing the nation’s long-standing dictatorial leader, Saddam Hussein, from power. What was initially framed as a swift military campaign quickly devolved into a multi-year US military occupation characterized by profound institutional chaos, civil strife, and intense sectarian bloodshed.
Although the bulk of American combat forces initially withdrew in 2011, the vacuum left behind paved the way for new regional security crises. Just three years later, in 2014, US troops were forced to return to the country to lead an international coalition helping Iraqi security forces fight back against the ruthless rise of the Islamic State (IS), which had seized control of vast swathes of Iraqi territory. The human cost of these consecutive conflicts has been devastating. Conservative estimates from the Iraq Body Count Project place the total loss of Iraqi civilian and military life at approximately 200,000, while the United States military sustained the loss of around 4,500 service members over the course of the engagements.
To analyze the broader regional implications of the withdrawal, the current state of Iraq, and the lessons—if any—that Western nations might take away from two decades of intervention, Monocle Radio’s The Globalist recently spoke with Renad Mansour, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme and director of the Iraq Initiative at Chatham House.
Living in Unprecedented Times: The Global Ripple Effects
The final US troops are leaving their bases in Iraq after two decades. As the region descends into further turmoil due to the war in Iran, do you think that Western nations have learned anything from recent history in the region?
What we’ve learned in the past few years is that we’re living in unprecedented times, and analysts don’t use that term lightly. The US administration, which was previously calling for a withdrawal from the Middle East, is now back in the region. It’s not just a war arena in one place, as we saw in Iraq. Conflicts now rage across Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, the Gulf, Israel, Palestine, and, of course, Iran.
The number of wars—not just in the Middle East but across the world—has more than doubled over the past decade. The world is on fire, and politicians don’t appear to be interested in, or to be able to, put out some of these fires. So I think that we’re living in dangerous times, and it’s hard to know how this will end, or what will come from it.
A Generation-Defining Foreign Policy Adventure
In that context, with the departure of the final US troops from Iraq, how will history see this particular chapter?
It’s certainly the greatest adventure of US foreign policy in a generation. The embassy in Baghdad was America’s largest embassy in the world by far. So much attention was devoted to Iraq from 2003 onwards. Most of those in the Pentagon and across the US government have had some role with Iraq. Aside from Afghanistan, it was the foreign policy agenda for a generation.
Twenty-plus years since its invasion and occupation, the Americans are leaving. But they are leaving a country that does not have full sovereignty, a government without the ability to effectively control its territory, and armed groups linked to Iran that are able to fire drones and rockets—not just in Iraqi territory, but across the Gulf, into Saudi Arabia, and elsewhere.
The Iraqi government is constantly ranked among the worst in terms of corruption and human development. Many Iraqis now regret the war and wish that it never happened. Of course, there is an argument that life under Saddam Hussein, under dictatorship and under international sanctions, was incredibly difficult, so I don’t think that comparing Iraq before the war is necessarily helpful. But nonetheless, the US came in and broke the country into many pieces, and now the Iraqis are left to try and build something out of that.
The Shift in Power Dynamics and the Rise of Iran
How much influence does the US still have in the region, especially since you mentioned that militias sponsored by the Iranians are gaining control in Iraq? Where does the US’s balance of power now stand, especially as Iran gains influence in the region?
Today’s narrative is that the US’s influence is withering in the region. At the same time, the Gulf still expects America to be its security guarantor. I would say that most governments in the Middle East, from Syria to Lebanon and even Iraq, still look to the US.
The political administrations have had significant influence on formal governments. From Baghdad to Beirut, however, these formal governments are less able to control their territories and their own people. So you have these states that are withering away, unable to exercise real power—and those are the pockets that Iran is hoping to exploit.
In reality, you can have “mission accomplished” when it comes to the purely military phase. Just weeks after the 2003 invasion of Iraq, then-President George W. Bush stood on the deck of an aircraft carrier and famously declared “mission accomplished.” But the real war always happens after that initial military operation, and that is where the region is now. The US is struggling to put the region back together so that it can maintain its influence over the Middle East.
